A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
