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Voting has commenced for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though experts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a four-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Forecasts

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – including parties for the over-50s, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks may require months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.